Amid the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.
The move to assault another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a rogue state.
He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.
Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.
