A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
